By Khanh Vu Duc*
HAVANA TIMES – Cuba is running out of time. This is not a slogan. It is not an ideological argument. It is a material reality measured in darkness — in daily blackouts, in empty pharmacies, in silent factories, and in the steady, heartbreaking departure of Cuba’s young people. A nation does not collapse all at once. It collapses slowly, then suddenly.
Today, Cuba stands on that threshold.
Recent news that Washington may ease restrictions on Venezuelan fuel shipments offers, at best, temporary relief. Fuel can delay a blackout. It cannot solve a systemic failure. No foreign government — not the United States, not Venezuela, not anyone — can rescue Cuba from its internal contradictions.
Only Cubans can do that.
And the window to act is closing.
“We Don’t Want to Leave — But We Cannot Live Like This”
In recent months, Cuban friends — engineers, doctors, teachers — have shared a common sentiment. One young electrical engineer from Santiago told me bluntly: “I don’t want to emigrate. This is my country. But I cannot build a future here. Every day is survival, not living.”
A doctor in Havana described the quiet despair inside hospitals: “We improvise every day. We lack basic supplies. We are trained to save lives, but sometimes we feel powerless.”
And a small private restaurant owner explained the limits they face: “We are allowed to exist, but not allowed to grow. We cannot import freely. We cannot access credit. We are always one regulation away from closure.”
These are not counterrevolutionaries. These are patriots. They are not asking for ideology. They are asking for dignity. A system that cannot retain its youth, support its professionals, or trust its citizens cannot endure indefinitely. Those who govern Cuba today, know this, even if they do not admit it publicly.
The Lesson Cuba Must Face
In 1986, Vietnam faced a similar moment of truth. Its economy was collapsing. Its people were suffering. Its leadership made a historic decision: reform or perish.
Through Đổi Mới, Vietnam legalized private enterprise, opened to the world, and unleashed the productive power of its people. The result was not chaos, but recovery. Not collapse, but transformation.
Cuba today, faces the same fundamental choice.
But reform must be real — not cosmetic, not delayed, not symbolic. Pilot projects and partial openings are no longer enough. Half-measures only buy time while trust erodes. Because time is no longer on Cuba’s side.
Five Urgent Steps to Save Cuba’s Future
If Cuba’s leadership truly believes in the nation’s survival and dignity, it must act immediately and decisively.
First, fully legalize and protect private enterprise. Not as a tolerated exception, but as a recognized pillar of the national economy. Cuban entrepreneurs must be allowed to import and export directly, access financing, hire freely, and operate without arbitrary interference. A stronger private sector does not erase Cuba’s social achievements; it is the only way to sustain them.
Second, guarantee economic rights in law. Economic freedom cannot depend on administrative discretion. It requires legal protection against confiscation, independent commercial courts, and transparent, stable rules. Without predictability, no economy can function.
Third, restore civic trust through political opening. Economic reform alone is not enough. Cuba must allow independent civil associations, independent media voices, and genuine public debate. Trust cannot be commanded. It must be earned.
Fourth, normalize relations with the United States in the national interest. Normalization is not surrender. It is strategy. Vietnam normalized relations with its former enemy without abandoning sovereignty, and its people benefited. Cuba can do the same — but only if it demonstrates credible reform and confidence in its own citizens.
Fifth, prepare for democratic transition — peacefully and gradually. Democracy is not a threat to Cuba. It is Cuba’s future. The choice is not between chaos and control. It is between managed transition now or uncontrolled collapse later.
The Greatest Threat Is Not Reform — It Is Inaction
Some will say reform is dangerous. But history teaches the opposite. The greatest danger is paralysis. The greatest danger is waiting too long.
Every plane leaving Havana carries part of Cuba’s future away. Every blackout darkens not just homes, but hope.
This Is About Saving a Nation
Let me be clear: I am not a friend of repression. I am not a defender of political monopoly. I am a friend of the Cuban people.
I believe Cuba deserves to be free — politically, economically, and spiritually. But freedom requires a path. And that path begins with reform grounded in reality.
Not tomorrow. Now.
Because nations, like people, do not have unlimited time. And Cuba’s future is too precious to lose.
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*Guest author Khanh Vu Duc, Part-time Professor, University of Ottawa, Canada, Faculty of Law
Read more from Cuba here in Havana Times.